Surely the important point here (for general freediving, not sure this applies to competitions anyway) is LISTENING to your body and adjusting your dive accordingly for each dive, not knowing or trying to predict your capacity beforehand and sticking to what you thought you could do at the beginning.
Predicting your performance before you dived is only testing your ability to predict the future in my opinion! :martial
Am I misunderstanding what you are saying here?
I also believe that freediving is about listening to your body, and this means giving people the right to come up early if they want to. Even a world champion can have a bad day. So what, they did 250m in practice, so they announce 240m? So what? They have a bad day, or they are sick, and they want to come up at 180m? Yes, allow them to. Don't punish them for it. Same thing for deep diving. So the diver equalized to 100m many times in practice, but can't equalize on the competition day. Should we force him to break his eardrums? No, let him turn early.
There is also something else extremely important happening here which no one has mentioned so far. Freediving competitions, both pool and ocean, can be very stressful. So stressful that most people I see eventually 'burn out' and lose interest, because they are not having fun anymore. This 'loss' of athletes creates a major problem for the growth of the sport. Look today, how many people are still competing in international competitions, and were also competing in 1999-2002? Of 1000 active competitors you will probably find perhaps 20 people or less still competing from 10 years ago. At Lignano there were only a few old timers, J.M. Pradon, Battaglia, Junko.
Part of growing the sport is growing the number of athletes. Part of growing the number of athletes is retaining athletes, keeping them interested, keeping them motivated, making sure they have fun.
Part of having fun is being free to do what you feel like doing, listening to your body, not feeling huge stress. The stress of a dive or a swim is MUCH greater if you know that you cannot turn or come up early. By forcing the athlete into the performance by making huge penalties or DQ for coming up short, we unnecessarily increase the stress, decrease the enjoyment, and 'lose' athletes each year.
In my opinion, the best approach to a low stress competition is:
1. Allow the athlete to select the approximate time of the performance (early, middle, later)
2. Allow the athlete to come up early without penalty points
3. Remove stressful rules such as the 'grab the side of the pool' rule, which makes the athlete worry during the whole performance that the timing of the exit might not be 100% perfect. This rule also exists in the ocean, if you grab the float or rope before your airway exits, you get a penalty or DQ. I recall in 2004 Nationals, my whole dive I was afraid that I would screw up the exit by a fraction of a second.
When training depth, I *never* decide the depth that I will dive in advance. How can I possibly make that decision? It depends 100% on how the dive is going. Was the preparation good? Did my preparation feel good? How was the final breathing, packing, and the early descent? How good was the mouthfill? Am I relaxed while sinking? Do I feel an early urge to breathe?
Typically I decide my target depth, during the descent, around 40-50m, after the mouthfill and in the early sinking phase. I am still clear headed, no narcosis, and I have everything I need to know to decide what the safe depth will be.
In the competition of course it is different. I am not allowed to wait until 40-50m on the descent to make a choice on the depth. I have to make the choice the day before-- and I have no information at all, I don't know if I will sleep well, how will I feel, how will the prep go, how the early dive will go, and without any of that information I must decide on the depth.
I think if we reduce the stress on the athletes, the performances would actually go UP, not down, because people would be more relaxed, less afraid.