Very good question.
Having gone over and through this cycle many times over the years, I think the current state of diving is in a world of hurt. The time was that diving was understood to be a physically demanding and training intensive fringe sport. Diving certification has become more like an exercise in self promotion and financial spreadsheets with multi tier'd levels, Instructor numbers exploding and the overall quality of that instruction declining as divers with little more time than that mandated by the certifying agency. Combine the ease that diving is portrayed with the overall sad shape of the student and usually newbie diver, and the accidents that happen are fodder for the front page, doing additional damage to the sport.
I've just been assisting with an advanced SCBA Rescue program and am appaled at the access granted to individuals with little or barely enough time in the water to learn the most basic of skills- that of bouyancy control and gear handling. Divers cert'd by two of the big names with experience varying fro fresh out of the pool to two years but 4 dives were trying to attend to a victims situation while they themselves were doing little to assure their safty- from themselves. These divers were for the most part using ill-fitting rental gear, had not dove the training area before had not worn exposure suits for the locale and hadn't completed or even attempted to study the training materials foisted on them by the cert'ing agency at ridiculous prices. $65 for a video, a workbook and a pencil with a logo on it??
I'm in the wrong business!
As I see it, the current state of the economy is such that the students will be weeded out by sheer financial stress, making only those that truly want to learn apply and with these reduced numbers, be easier to weed out for the lack of physicla acumen. But these reduced numbers will also put the hurt on the small shop and force them to lowere rates and/or standards...
So... training standards are going to need to be looked at and made "real".
Other than that, the outfit that comes up with an affordable U/W communications setup- wireless diver to diver is going to be living the sweet life. I look to Oceanic and Scubapro/Uwatec as the deep pockets electronics folks to be able to absorb the R&D and marketing of these things. I'd pop for a $500 two person setup right now.
sven