Herbert's new records are definitely amazing, but I think people are somehow loosing track of what's going on. No one is yet close to 100m in constant weight. At 95m, most people feel that 100m is a dive away, but that's not the case.
Let's look at how things progressed for Herbert in constant weight:
2001:
pb of 89m during training in Ibiza
WR of 86m in Ibiza competition
2002:
constant weight pb of 92m during training in Tenerife
cancelled constant weight WR attempt
2003:
In Cyprus, he didn't break 90 in training, tried 93m in competition, broke eardrum, B/O
Austria:
Makes 95m world record on 3rd attempt (no one has clarified what happened on the first two unsuccessful attempts)
Makes 94m in Carinthian competition
While some people seem to think that we have suddenly seen giant leaps and bounds, look again at Herbert's progression:
2001: 89m
2002: 92m
2003: 95m
Increasing at 3m per year, it would be 2005 before 100m would be reached. Of course, anything can happen.
If you want to look at the progression of the CW depths in general, not specific to a particular athlete, you must look at the personal best depths of the athletes, and not necessarily the world records. In 2001, both Herbert and Manolis Giankos had reported 89m personal bests in training, and these were the deepest depths reported in 2001. In 2002, Coste reported a 93m dive before doing the 90m WR. In 2003, the deepest dive yet reported by anyone is Herbert's 95m.
So the absolute progression reported by any athlete:
2001: 89m (Nitsch/Giankos)
2002: 93m (Coste)
2003: 95m (Nitsch) : (Coste's attempt is coming up soon)
Again, it shows a slow progression.
Anyone who has dived very deep in constant weight knows that one of the greatest difficulties is not to make a new personal best, but just to get back to the depth you were doing before! This was exemplified in Cyprus, when Herbert was having problems breaking 80m, despite a pb of 92m the year before. The depths are so deep it is hard just to tie your old pb, let alone get that extra one or two meters. Five more meters can seem like a mile away.
Nevertheless, people will continue to dive deeper, at a steady pace; I think we'll see steady progression until around 115-125m, when the progression will slow down dramatically.
I also predict another phenomenon. The gap between the deepest divers and the 'next deepest' will continue to widen. If you look at the result of the carinthian competition in Austria which just happened, Herbert is first with 94m, and the second deepest diver was 14-liter man Hubert Maier of Germany with 64m. Herbert won by 30m. This trend will continue. In Cyprus, we saw Stepanek at 93m, Coste at 85m, Nery at 82m, then way back is Frolla with 72m, Lanner with 71m, etc...
We will see a steady increase in the number of divers reaching 70-75m, but the number of divers going 80m or deeper will hardly increase.
Free immersion is a totally different story. Expect to see huge leaps in this category. Keep in mind that while it took Herbert three tries to make the constant record, he did the 100m in free immersion on his first attempt (correct me if I'm wrong). Remember he can equalize deeper in free immersion because he goes down feet first.
Here is another interesting trend:
May 2001:
CW record: 70m (women), 81m (men)
FI record, 70m (women), 73m (men)
Sept 2003:
CW record: 70m (women), 95m (men)
FI record: 70m (women), 100m (men)
So, in early 2001, the men's free immersion record was 3m deeper than the women's record, now it is 30m deeper; that's a hundred foot difference!
In early 2001, the men's CW record was 11m deeper than the women's record, now it is 25m deeper.
Is this because no one is trying to break the women's records? Not so. Here are the attempts which occured on the women's records (that I can remember):
2001:
Deborah Andolloh 74m FI (samba)
Mandy Cruickshank FI (didn't reach 68m prerequisite)
2002:
Yasemin Dalkilic CW 72m (B/O)
Yamina (greece) CW (cancelled)
2003:
Annabel Briseno, made 71m in training, announced she would try WR in Cyprus, ended up announcing 64m (B/O)
Mandy Cruickshank CW 71m (B/O)
Mandy Cruickshank FI 71m (B/O)
Annabel Briseno (CW & FI delayed until November)
Since Tanya's 70m/70m double record in FI/CW in 2001, the deepest official (successful) CW dive recorded by a woman was 65m by Mandy Cruickshank at Kona 2002.
Even Tanya herself said that after her 70m CW record, she didn't think she could have gone much deeper.
Eric Fattah
BC, Canada