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coronavirus and freediving

grarena

Member
Jan 19, 2019
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New Orleans
Great. Totally agree with this. I think we will survive this like we have everything prior. I’m fascinated by the Black Plague of 1346. Also known as the bubonic plague in a span of a decade or more killed 60% of Europe. Population prior 80 million. After 30 million. Took 200 years to get back.
 
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cdavis

Well-Known Member
Jan 21, 2003
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Sarasota, Fla
Like almost everything else that comes out of his mouth, false is the most likely.

I've thought about how to model it, but there are too many unknowns. If control measures don't work, most people will have caught it by the end of May and it will be mostly gone by the end of June, {and a huge number of mostly older Americans will be dead). If and how well control measures work and how well the medical system can deal with whats coming is anybodies guess. My very imprecise guess is longer, but I sure hope I'm wrong. Summer Bahama trip is calling.
 

J Campbell

Well-Known Member
Sep 17, 2001
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Annapolis, MD, USA
OK. I understand the modeling and graph and exponential growth - I'm an engineer. But we really don't know how many people were infected when we started social distancing - seems that lots of folks carry it and don't ever know.
 
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grarena

Member
Jan 19, 2019
95
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64
New Orleans
I doubt we reach mortality numbers in the states that matches Flu. I just intubated an 86 year old with the flu an hour ago. Influenza A. That patient likely won’t survive. There will be 30,000 flu deaths this year. Covid-19 won’t get to that number and hope keep under 10,000 deaths.
 

marco15499

Laguneros Spearfishing
Apr 4, 2011
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North Miami, FL
I doubt we reach mortality numbers in the states that matches Flu. I just intubated an 86 year old with the flu an hour ago. Influenza A. That patient likely won’t survive. There will be 30,000 flu deaths this year. Covid-19 won’t get to that number and hope keep under 10,000 deaths.

Are you a doctor, Grarena? It is good to know we have one in our comunity.
 

cdavis

Well-Known Member
Jan 21, 2003
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Sarasota, Fla
Sure hope you are right. Given the numbers we are seeing from other countries, why do you think the death toll might be under 10,000?

J Campbell: Starting point was a puzzle to me till I played with it enough to figure out that it only matters if you can break the chain of infection early enough. If not, different numbers for starting point only move the end of the epidemic timing forward or back a couple of weeks, insignificant in an overall sense.
 

grarena

Member
Jan 19, 2019
95
17
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64
New Orleans
Sure hope you are right. Given the numbers we are seeing from other countries, why do you think the death toll might be under 10,000?

J Campbell: Starting point was a puzzle to me till I played with it enough to figure out that it only matters if you can break the chain of infection early enough. If not, different numbers for starting point only move the end of the epidemic timing forward or back a couple of weeks, insignificant in an overall sense.
China with 1.4 billion has 3000 deaths so far. I’d like to think we can it below 20,000 maybe even 10,000.
 

7BDiver

Member
Sep 5, 2019
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Sandpoint Idaho
I really feel like there is a serious lack of insight to what demographics are hit the hardest by the virus, which ones have the best chances and why? We all see it coming but how bad off does one have to be for there to be a significant risk, how does one prepare themselves for a better chance? All the soap in the world is not going to help people immune system, it will leave them with less active/practiced defense mechanisms. I see people stocking up on useless and counterproductive canned food, top ramen, frozen food and toilet paper, there is not good guidance out there for people. Go home, close the shutters, wrap up in wool, how well did that work out for Europe in the past.
 

cdavis

Well-Known Member
Jan 21, 2003
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Sarasota, Fla
Well somebody with some serious computing capacity is taking a crack at predicting the epidemic and the effect of countermeasures.


Warning, its depressing, but along the lines I had been estimating.
 

grarena

Member
Jan 19, 2019
95
17
23
64
New Orleans
I’ve read worse. That’s hundreds of thousands. I’ve seen 2.2 million deaths. I’m not buying it tho. In the end no one knows. We will only know when it’s over. I see the mitigation working but how long can you continue to mitigate and shut down the economy? A few months at most. That part is scary. Thanks China.
 

Tangerino

Member
Apr 12, 2017
19
4
18
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Baltimore,USA
I think the fed needs to rise the bar of a stronger massage to Americans people to stay home if you can. China right now dealing with some deja vu cases. We are not helping at all because no one knows if he has the virus or not because there are cases like Kevin Durante which he said that he did not think he has CoronaVirus. I think Fed needs to come out with some quick test kit and pass it to everyone and who ever has virus needs to stay home. I heard that they are working to make home testing kit. If our behavior did not change toward this crisis than we are going to see a worst scenario than Italy and Spain. There are other countries in same stage as US like France , Germany and England.
 

Fondueset

Carp Whisperer
Interesting bit about this virus. My earlier remark meant to say any severe respiratory has the potential to cause lung damage - not the Covid-19 is the same as the flu. I was also triggered a little by the fact that the article seems to have originated with Business Insider - which can wax click-baity. But the below does point out why Covid-19 is so much worse than the flu.



Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, that's what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..
H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward.
Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..
That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...
And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.... and can potentially kill you or someone you've exposed

#flattenthecurve. Stay at home folks and share this to those who may not understand.
 

grarena

Member
Jan 19, 2019
95
17
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64
New Orleans
That was excellent. I’m a physician and really enjoyed that. I think the US has finally understood social distancing but I don’t know how long we can do it. 2 months at most imo. After that the curve better flatten or else because people won’t do it longer and businesses can’t handle it longer anyway. Where do you think we will be in 2 months if people do honor social distancing with seriousness?
 

cdavis

Well-Known Member
Jan 21, 2003
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70
Sarasota, Fla
If everybody instantly started doing what they need to do, figure a week to peak cases and 3 weeks to peak death, another couple of weeks to clear the system. That is hugely optimistic, it will take longer, but businesses and people are already reacting strongly in my town (Sarasota, Fl) Businesses parking lots downtown that are normally packed are about 1/3 full, the beach wasn't empty, but it sure was thin. One grocery store parking lot was about 1/4 full at 9 am. Business parking near the beach was 1/8th full at 9 am and much less by 9:25. Anybodies guess at how it will actually play out.

Thanks for the piece Fondue, one of the best things I've seen.
 
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marco15499

Laguneros Spearfishing
Apr 4, 2011
217
82
68
North Miami, FL
That's my guess. And I have two theories:

1. The virus escaped from the Lab
2. They released it intentionally to controll their population. Less old people to take care of.

I don't know if we will ever know the truth...
 

cdavis

Well-Known Member
Jan 21, 2003
3,966
757
218
70
Sarasota, Fla
Could it be a release from a lab? I suppose its possible, but it is much much much more likely to be a natural event. Epidemiologists have been warning for years of this exact thing happening in China's live animal markets. They are the perfect place for this kind of virus to develop. IMHO, unless somebody comes up with some hard evidence, intentional release is just as conspiracy theory designed to divide us.
 

Tangerino

Member
Apr 12, 2017
19
4
18
43
Baltimore,USA
The lab that came from is their wet market in Wuhan which they have all kind of wild animals in top of each others with no refrigeration and setting in floors. I don’t want to put some footage because It’s very bad to see. Some scientists said when you have 50 deferents kind of wild animals together that is perfect way to experiment a new virus and bacteria jumping around each other and finally will end up in human body.
I was wondering how Taiwan has less than 200 cases and it’s next to China. One death so far. That is the model other countries need to learn from. Shutting down everything for a month it may help spreading the virus.
 
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